Welp, another year is already over. I managed to do my annual Roth conversion again this year, ensuring more tax-free gains in 5 years’ time. There was a large market drop on 12/18 this year, which set me back quite a bit in terms of savings, but these things happen and are an inevitable part of investing. The yen also declined about 5% this month, which doesn’t bode well for the long term despite the short-term reduction in USD expenses....
Apologies for missing last month’s update, as I was away on the Europe trip. The trip was mostly a success: we were able to successfully navigate the aggressive itinerary, despite occasional transport delays. My favorite locations we visited were Helsinki, Vienna, and Switzerland (Geneva and Zurich). Paris was worse than I remembered it from my very first visit back in late 2011, and Munich was crowded and noisy due to Oktoberfest....
The yen continued to strengthen a bit this month, with the USDJPY rate dropping from 149 to 146 at the end of August, which is a 2% change. This was larger than my portfolio gains this month, which meant that my net worth dropped in JPY terms, even while rising in USD terms. This is the second month in a row that this phenomenon has happened, and while I do completely understand the mechanism behind it, it’s still a bit unsettling to see....
Breaking news on the yen front: the Japanese central bank decided to raise interest rates again, now up to 0.25%. Immediately afterwards, the Fed declined to raise raises, and apparently hinted at a rate cut next quarter. As a result, the yen has rapidly strengthened, currently at 146.6 as I write this, which is over 10% strengthening in about 3 weeks. In addition, the Japanese stock market has plunged and is now in correction territory, potentially headed for a bear market....
Well, the yen has fallen to an all-time low (in my lifetime, at least), breaking the 160 barrier. JCB doesn’t seem to care that much as long as the volatility doesn’t get too high. US interest rates remain really high, and Japan is unable to raise its own rates to match, so the yen will continue to bleed. As a result, the USD numbers were basically unchanged, whereas the yen numbers are at an all-time high....
Since last month, the yen strengthened a bit, but it’s still quite weak (over 155 / USD). Investments jumped up quite a bit, so that helped the bottom line. The biggest expense this month was I booked flights to Europe for later this year for our honeymoon trip. The final itinerary is still TBD, but I’m hoping that it will be enjoyable for us. Hopefully I’ll be able to use miles for intra-Europe flights and hotel stays....
April is US tax month, and I owed a few hundred dollars due to my previously-mentioned slightly-too-large Roth conversion. I also surprisingly received a bonus from my company, which is the first time that’s happened since I’ve worked in Japan. All the more reason to like where I am! This month, the yen fell even further, hitting 160 to the US dollar at one point. I’m pretty sure that the Japanese government did another intervention, as the yen has dropped below 155 this week, but unless Japan raises its interest rates or the US lowers its rates, I don’t see why it won’t continue creeping up over the near term....
So, I’ve managed to survive the worst of the pollen season without too much suffering. The medicine I’ve been taking seem to have helped a bit, but still not 100% symptom-free. Helpfully, the weather forecasts here include detailed predictions of pollen, so on high pollen days it helps to stay inside. Wearing a mask 😷 also helps too. Pollen season is followed closely by sakura season, and I’ve been able to go out and enjoy the cherry blossoms once or twice so far....
Another month of 2024 in the bag. Weather is starting to warm up here, but with that comes cedar pollen, and with that comes my allergies. I’ve been on a sublingual immunotherapy treatment for the past 9 months, but it appears to not be completely effective at preventing my symptoms, at least so far. Until the pollination season passes in about a month or two, I try to avoid going outside too much and need to hang my laundry indoors....
Current exchange rate: 148 (boo) Market movement: up The first month of 2024 is over already, although it still feels like the year has just begun. US tax season is also fast approaching. I’ve done it enough times by now that the whole process only takes me a few hours, although there are a few extra wrinkles this year. Now that I’m married, I can no longer file as Single, but I also can’t file jointly as my wife is not a US citizen or permanent resident and thus, shockingly, has no desire to start declaring and paying US taxes....